Gggs style doesn’t age well. He doesn’t like body shots. His defense and the added will lead to a win by Canelo. Close fight but you can’t beat Canelo close. They almost gave him the win against Bivol

Shall we venture a guess before the fight?

Unfortunately, I think Canelo takes this one. I don’t see how GGG can realistically win.

In the previous fights, there has been a lot of talk about GGG not throwing body shots. Instead, I think that’s what Canelo will do in this fight.

Canelo will sooner or later get it right with his body shots, once he does, many agonizing rounds will slowly but surely grind GGG down until he can’t take it anymore, or GGG’s stamina will go totally disappear, then he will be fatally exposed and definitely risk being knocked out as badly as Kovalev.

My guess is that for the first time GGG is at risk of being stopped.

Canelo vs Golovkin III

Super middleweight title

THE WEIGHTS
Canelo = 167.4
Golovkin = 167.8

THE QUESTIONS
1. At 40, how much does Golovkin have left?
2. How will Canelo respond mentally to losing vs. Bivol?
3. Will Golovkin carry his power to 168 and will the heavier weight affect his speed and mobility?
4. Will Canelo be affected by having to drop back to 168 after weighing 174.4 for Bivol?
5. They have fought 24 rounds with no knockdowns; will there be a knockdown tonight?
6. What if there is another controversial decision or what if it’s another draw?
7. If Canelo loses will his drawing power be forever damaged and if Golovkin loses will this be his last fight?

THE ANSWERS
1. Golovkin has not been in many wars so there is alot less wear’n’tear on him vs. other 40 year old fighters. Plus he looks to have trained extremely hard so the guess here is he will make this a very competitive fight.
2. It seems to have motivated him to train harder as he looked rock solid at the weigh-in. Of course we won’t know until the opening bell rings if there are any deficiencies from him knowing he is no longer “unbeatable”, especially if Golovkin gets him in trouble.
3. Golovkin has always been a great puncher. The guess here is that Canelo will feel it just as much as he did the first two times, though it is worth noting that Golovkin has never had him seriously hurt or in danger of going down despite landing some good shots. Golovkin is 5’10” so he should carry 167.8 well but as the fight enters the later rounds it could really slow him down.
4. Most likely not. Roy Jones made a very bad mistake going from light heavy to heavy and then back again as did Chris Byrd dropping from heavyweight to light heavy. However there was a much larger disparity in the weight drop with both of them vs. Canelo dropping 7 pounds.
5. There very well could be. Both feel like they have alot to prove so they may take more chances. The guess here though is another 12 round chess match with several hard power shots landed but both having the chin to take it. If someone does go down, it would most likely be Golovkin due to his age and legs not being as strong as they once were.
6. Then they will go down in history as being so evenly matched that it was very hard for the judges to pick a clear winner. Of course two items of consideration is Canelo’s star power and the tendency to give Golovkin a break due to the nature of the first two fights. Case in point: many feel Erik Morales and Marco Antonio Barrera were 1-1 after 2 fights but that the wrong man got the decision both times. Fight 1 rewarded Morales’ star status and fight 2 rewarded sympathy for Barrera. The guess here is that the judges won’t be swayed one way or another and will give the rightful winner the decision. Also the chances of seeing a fourth fight (no matter who wins or if there is another draw) are essentially 0%.
7. If Canelo were to lose two straight he would most certainly be damaged goods the rest of his career. He would still have a loyal following but the face of boxing and super star status would be gone forever. If Golovkin were to lose, it may very well be his last fight. The exception would be losing a close competitive fight and him deciding to go back to 160 to defend his titles.

THE POSSIBILITIES
This fight will go one of two ways. It will either be a chess match with both guys trying to use skill to win (out of fear of losing) or it will turn into a pier 6 brawl (out of passion for winning). Canelo boxed with footwork the first fight. In the second fight, he fought more aggressively without outright brawling, choosing to stand in front of Golovkin and use upper body movement while throwing hard punches. Golovkin fought both fights the same way, stalking and looking to choose his punches carefully. Johnathon Banks has said that Golovkin will concentrate on defense for the third fight so this should get Canelo to throw more often. The issue could be stamina, which has always been a weakness for Canelo. If – and it’s a big IF – Golovkin is successful at making Canelo miss many punches in the first six rounds it could get very interesting in the last six as Canelo tires. The guess here is that Canelo will use a hybrid of strategy from the first and second fights. He will start out with movement. In the first fight, it was clear he did that out of concern for Golovkin’ power. This time around it will be out of strategy to get Golovkin using his legs and energy to chase him so it will be HIM instead of Canelo who tires late in the fight. It will also nullify any strategy Golovkin might have about using defense (blocking, rolling, slipping) to wear out Canelo’s arms. Both men would be very wise to invest in body shots early in the fight. One thing there is virtually 0% chance of happening is Golovkin using lateral movement like Canelo did in fight 1. He has never used that type of footwork and at 40 he would lack the necessary tools.

This fight has two possible patterns: the James Toney vs. Mike McCallum trilogy or the Manny Pacquiao vs. Juan Manuel Marquez four fight series. Toney vs. McCallum I and II were eerily similar to Canelo vs Golovkin I and II with identical results: a draw and a majority decision. The time frame is even very close 5 years and two months for Toney/McCallum and 5 years and one day for Canelo/Golovkin. In their third fight, McCallum was the exact same age as Golovkin: 40. He had lost enough speed and reflexes to allow Toney to land punches he was unable to in the first two fights. That being said, McCallum still had enough experience and know-how to keep Toney honest at all times and even won some rounds along the way. In fact, two judges had it 115-113. One other similarity: the first two fights were at middleweight and the third fight was at light heavyweight. There was little effect on either guy’s ability at the higher weight, as will most likely be the case tonight. Now in the Pacquiao vs Marquez series, the fourth fight turned out to be explosive because both guys had much to prove. Marquez was tired of losing close decisions and Pacquiao, like Canelo, was coming off of a loss. It made both guys turn up the heat and resulted in both getting floored as well as ending with a devastating knockout. Which multi-fight rivalry will tonight’s final chapter of Canelo vs Golovkin more closely resemble?

THE RESULT
The pick here is an almost identical duplicate of Toney vs. McCallum. Despite both guys being hard punchers, neither Toney nor McCallum ever came close to scoring a knockdown in 36 rounds of combat due to their savvy defense and reliable chins. The stylistic match-up of Canelo vs Golovkin is a mirror image: Canelo, like Toney, is a good counterpuncher who also tends to fight in spurts. Golovkin, like McCallum, is a good technical fighter who tends to fight at the same pace all the time. We might get some fireworks here and there (possibly a knockdown though doubtful) but in the end, it will go 12 rounds once again. Canelo’s speed advantage and flashier punches will pull the trick, just like the second fight, albeit this time on a more successful scale due to Golovkin’s advanced age, just like the case in Toney vs McCallum III. The scores will even be similar: 116-112, 116-112, 117-111 for Canelo (the verdict for Toney in fight 3 were 115-113, 115-113, and 117-111).

One final note: those who look at Golovkin’s last three fights and see weaknesses that almost guarantee Canelo dominates him tonight….don’t forget what a tremendous factor motivation can be. Remember Thomas Hearns getting KO’d by Iran Barkley in and just barely eking out a split decision over James Kinchen in 1988? He then signed to face Sugar Ray Leonard in a rematch in June 1989. Everyone thought it would be a blowout. And what happened? Hearns floored Leonard twice and got a controversial draw in a fight most felt he won. Yeah, don’t count Gennady Golovkin out. Anything is possible.