WBA light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol is a narrow -140 favorite to defeat WBC/IBF/WBO light heavyweight champion Artur Beterbiev (+120) in their clash on Saturday for the undisputed world championship. Bivol-Beterbiev headlines a big card at Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The fight will stream exclusively on ESPN+ in the U.S. starting at 6 p.m. ET/ 3 p.m. PT.
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Two factors make Bivol the favorite in this fight, I believe. Beterbiev’s age and his constant health problems; also, we can include that Bivol is the better and fresher boxer, but we never know for certain if that is enough to defeat such a destructive fighter as Beterbiev is. Let’s wait to find out.
Bivol being a favorite seems to imply Beterbiev is an aged fighter. Not buying it. There’s no doubt Bivol is very good, but Beterbiev is a destroyer.
No, I don’t see Beterbiev as aged.
Beterbiev hasn’t always impressed boxing-wise, although he sooner or later has broken down his opponents.
In some fights, the opponent has won the rounds in the beginning, if I remember correctly, like Marcus Browne. The fight against Callum Johnson surprised me in several ways, even though Beterbiev quickly got himself together.
Oleksandr Gvozdyk put up a fight even though it was pretty clear how it finally would end. Anthony Yarde was a bigger problem.
Beterbiev wins against Joe Smith Jr and Callum Smith deeply impressed me.
Some people who point to Beterbiev as the winner point to his fight against Gvozdyk, it’s an interesting comparison, but Bivol is a class above and his confidence should be at its peak, so the comparison doesn’t really hold up.
Some who highlight Bivol as the winner point to the fight against Canelo, but that comparison does not hold either as Beterbiev is bigger, heavier, hits harder and is a true pressure fighter.
I think the better fighter will win and that’s why I pick Bivol.
If there’s anyone who can pile up the rounds, keep the distance, use his footwork, move in and out quickly, irritate and annoy with his jab, attack with quick combinations, and actually getting Beterbiev increasingly desperate and frustrated, it must be Bivol.
If Bivol’s footwork doesn’t work I think he will be in big trouble cause Beterbiev is Beterbiev doing Beterbiev things
What a match-up. It can’t get any better than this.
First off, my compliments to you on a well-reasoned and articulate post. However, I disagree on the conclusion despite your facts being in order.
Power is a tremendous neutralizer of skilled fighters. Bivol is highly skilled, but no one has stood up to Beterbiev’s power. I agree with the Gvozdyk comparison because, at that time, Gvozdyk fought a LOT like Bivol. Beterbiev just beat him silly, and I don’t think Gvozdyk could prepare for what he faced despite fighting very gamely and clearly trying his best to hang in there.
I also like the reference to Canelo. Most people remember Bivol earning a comfortable points win, but there were times in that fight where Canelo’s power backed Bivol off and pushed him to his back foot. Beterbiev hits a TON more than Canelo. While Canelo can push you back, Beterbiev will destroy you with those same punches.
I guess that’s what makes this fight marketable and fan-friendly. We really don’t know what’s going to happen. Both guys are incredible fighters and have charted a course to this mega-fight.
Nicely written, a good and thoughtful input.
Before a good and exciting fight, like this one, which also has an uncertain outcome, this type of discussion is part of the event.
Good luck, or what to say, it is very possible that your analysis will be the correct one.
I understand your feelings, but I have to make Bivol a slight favorite. Beterviev better not give up the early rounds like he often does. Even though he has stopped all of his opponents, it has not always been easy. Yarde was leading on two of the judges score cards before the stoppage, as was the Ukranian (whose name I don’t want to miss write) that Ukranian had just had a very tough fight with Stevenson, though he stopped him, I felt that Beterviev benefited from his tough fight before, which also led to the Ukranians retirement at the time. I remember Beterviev looked like a robot at the beginning. Even Marcus Brown was winning the first 3 rounds against Beterbiev, and now believe the cut that Brown suffered bothered him far more thatn the cut that Beterviev had from the clash of heads.
Also these injuries that Beterbiev has recently had, before the Smith fight, and before this fight.
Unless the social media storm around Bivol bothers him, I see Bivol winning a close descision. Second choice of course, Beterviev by stoppage, but also a very close fight.
For both men, it should be their toughtest fight. If Beterbiev does win, especially by stoppage, I could see him named fighter of the year.
Beterbiev by 10.
We do not know how good bivols chin is..beterbiev is a very good boxer. He’s gonna land shots. Even if bivol gets 2/1 punches landed, if bivol doesn’t have Gvodzyk chin, he’ll be knocked out mid fight. People assume he has a chin
Remember when the big fights were in New York, AC and Vegas? I used to go to Atlantic City and NY often, right up 95 to see fights. Now, you have to fly out to Saudi Arabia.
That means American promoters need to get their shyt together.
100% agree. There’s a reason boxing is static or declining in popularity in the US. We don’t get fights that have a whole card of supporting fights. Most of the time, you’re lucky if there’s a single noteworthy fight in support of the main event. And yet American promoters try to sell a $79 PPV.
I credit the Saudi’s… they put their money where their mouth is.
This fight would never have happened if not for the Saudis. The money just wasn’t there for two Russians fighting in the USA. As great a fight as this is, neither of these guys are particularly well known outside of serious boxing fans.
Definitely matchup of the year! I can see either Bivol by decision, or Beterbiev by late TKO. However, if I had to choose one, I’m taking Beterbiev because of his raw power.
I agree, this fight could change in either direction. Beterbiev will be dangerous in all the rounds while Bivol will have to remain focused the entire fight with his plan. Both guys will dig deep in this one. Hard call for me to pick one. Both guys are great at their own game.
What makes Betterbiev & Bivol great is they have a good gas tank as well as great skills. Betterbiev is methodical – Bivol needs to somehow force Betterbiev to take a step back. The only fight where Betterbiev had to retreat was with Yarde – but muscle bound Yarde did not have the stamina or discipline to even go the distance.
I think Bivol will use his lateral movement and jab to keep Beterbiev from planting his feet down to gain power with his punches. If Bivol lays on the ropes and allows Beterbiev to come to him, Bivol is in a danger zone. Beterbiev needs to continually stalk and cut off the ring and make Bivol slow down on the ropes.
Because the fight is this month, Beterbiev is a historical wrecking ball of pure boxing terror (without a hockey mask during the fight).
This quintessential chess match may come down to how effective Bivol can box and how much punishment he can absorb. If Beterbiev can effectively cut off the ring, Bivol doesn’t see the 12th round.
Yes, good point on cutting off the ring. Bivol must jab at Beterbiev from the distance and move laterally to offset Beterbiev’s power. Bivol’s defense is exceptional which will make Beterbiev work harder to break through it. As the fight reaches past the half-way mark, we should see how the patterns unravel for each fighter to win.
I´m convinced Bivol has the plan and skill, and I see him as the favorite as well but I´m not sure, and as Mike Tyson said; “Everyone has a plan ’till they get punched in the mouth”.
Whilst all these great matchups keep happening, US boxing is being left behind. With all their guys inactive, avoiding each other and preferring to argue on Twitter.
So true. Look how long it took for Crawford
and Spence to lace up. It took forever.
Agree, so true
My favorite is Bivol as well, I could be wrong though. The outcome is unpredictable, so is the whole fight.
Too hard to the winner wouldn’t be surprised it a draw
Bivols most impressive fight was against Gilberto Ramirez, however, that guy has lead feet….Beterbiev is a better pressure fighter with more power and better IQ. I think the Canelo win was a mirage. Canelo thought he was cherry picking and had a miscalculation…even then Bivol couldn’t put a dent in Canelo. I just don’t think Bivol has the firepower to keep this guy at bay for 12.
I believe Bivol’s slight odds favorite may come from his victory over Canelo and the manner in which he did it. None of Beterbiev’s opponents has the notoriety of Canelo. I would be inclined to give Beterbiev a slight odds favor due to his 100% KO ratio against elite fighters. However none of those opponents are of Bivol’s pedigree. I can imagine Bivol may be inclined to use his superior boxing skills, movement or get Beterbiev’s respect early to stay competitive. Beterbiev obviously is seeking to break Bivol down over a period of time and get him out of there while not running into anything himself. I like them both and I’m grateful the fight is happening. May the best man win.
now this is real boxing ; hopefully tank , canelo, teo, shakur , and others will watch and take notes .
Agreed. It’s really sad. These fighters and
promoters need to get their feces consolidated. Quickly. Boxing fans are getting fed up with all the bitchy drama on
social media.
I stay off social media. It’s like highschool again for immature adults. Don’t have the stomach for it anymore.
thats tank, shakur , ryan , haney, teo, berlanga and this new wave of “fighters” , “X – twitter fighters “
The crazy part is boxing in the US pays well enough that fighters are content to fight guys they can beat. In other places, guys want that huge Saudi payday because they may not make “well enough”money fighting in the home countries against obviously lesser guys. Plus, the talent in the US isn’t good enough at the World Class level to produce multiple top guys to square off against one another.
Everyone Has a Plan Until They Get Punched in the Mouth- Iron Mike
Beterbiev’s power will decide this fight. It will take 5 to 6 rds for him to land cleanly because bivol is a good (not great) boxer.
Bivol understands distance control, but he does not possess the power to keep Beterbiev honest.
Once beterbiev realizes that bivol cannot hurt him he will walk through the blows and crush him.
I’m thinking rd 11 will be ragdoll time when bivol gets crumpled to the floor.
The other possibility is that beterbiev’s age catches up to him and bivol cruises to a decision. But since canelo was nearly wearing him down, it’s only a matter of time before beterbiev wears him out.
I remind myself although Beterbiev can rough up an opponent with power and serious inside pressure, he can also display outside boxing skills that will counter Bivol’s boxing skills. I believe some fans may receive a surprise about Beterbiev’s outside boxing skills.
This is a hard fight to pick I personally think it comes down to the pace of the fight which will make the difference, if Bivol starts fast with movement and combo’s at a pace where Beterbiev can’t get set. Bivol by dec.
Bivol before the half way mark, super weak division hopefully like Dubois vs Josh but Beterbiev gets stopped half way point. Super limited.
They got this one all wrong, Bivol has been beating up on blown up middleweights (Canelo, Ramirez, exc) Beterbiev has been destroying killers in his division (Yarde, Joe Smith, Callum Johnson, exc) Do you really think he’s gonna let Bivol dance around all night??? Dont get me wrong, Bivol is good but Beterbiev is a different type of beast.
Beterbiev is more proven boxer and will slowly wear down Bivol and KO him.
Like the house odds, Bivol I think by UD. I don’t see anyone on Beterbiev’s ledger that is a Canelo and that is the biggest factor going into this fight. The second biggest factor is Bivol being 33 and Beterbiev being 39.
You can look at Beterbiev against either Smith or Johnson to see what I am talking about. He can very easily reach these guys. No doubt if Beterbiev can reach you he’s probably going to stop you due to his power approach and endurance. He’s always in top shape.
The problem is what will Beterbiev do when he cannot reach his opponent? All the power in the world isn’t going to matter when you can’t land.